genomeboy.com

deCODEme is offering 23andMe customers free uploads to its site. Daniel has details and analysis:

So, why the free offer? I’m guessing deCODEme is gambling (quite reasonably) that offering free uploads will attract a non-trivial number of 23andMe customers over to deCODEme’s interface. That then provides the Icelanders with an opportunity to give people a fair trial of their own interface, and hopefully to impress them with the quality and accessibility of the data provided.

What then? Well, bear in mind that the entire chip-based personal genomics industry is really just a transient place-holder for the real deal: interpretation of complete genome sequences. All of the personal genomics companies currently out there are simply positioning themselves for a share of the potentially enormous sequencing interpretation market that will emerge within the next couple of years as the cost of DNA sequencing plummets.

It’s therefore crucial for deCODEme to place itself in the minds of likely early adopters of sequencing products as a serious and reliable player in the interpretation field. Right now it’s failing to do that, due to the extraordinary market dominance of 23andMe - but pulling over customers with this free offer will help.

I’m ready for the “potentially enormous sequencing interpretation market” to emerge anytime now…

At Nature News, there is something of a eulogy/finger-pointing festival for deCODE and indeed, for personal genomics in general:

…Some other researchers, however, say that deCODE’s scientific approach is to blame. The company worked to mine genetic data for common variations linked to disease through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and some experts note that these studies have turned up only a small fraction of the variation that causes disease. “The translation to commercial value is just not very direct,” says [Duke’s David] Goldstein, “in part because it is now clear that GWAS is not the tool of choice for unlocking the genetics of most common diseases.”

***

…companies that focus exclusively on personal genomics services, such as the one sold by deCODE as deCODEme, might find themselves in more trouble, [Leerink Swann’s Isaac] Ro says. The services are not seen as a medical necessity, diminishing their appeal, particularly in difficult economic times. This year the personal-genomics company 23andMe, based in Mountain View, California, announced two rounds of lay-offs, lost one of its two co-founders and announced a series of product and price restructurings.

“There’s no clinical trial supporting the value of these results, so it’s really recreational genomics,” Ro says. Large academic centres, not consumers, will find value in the rich genetic databases; 23andMe has tried to move into the research market, but because its data come from a self-selected customer population their value is limited, he says.

Here we go, still trotting out the same tired tropes. I agree: GWAS is of limited value and this probably contributed to deCODE’s demise. But whatever deCODE’s fate, if whole human genomes can be sequenced for < $2000, isn’t it about time we stopped kicking GWAS’s ever-stiffening corpse?  Second, just because something is not a medical necessity, does it follow that it is worthless? Ask the participants in the REVEAL study or anyone else who’s received an APOE genotype because she WANTED to know. Ask the people who learned something about their hereditary breast cancer risk from 23andMe. Is that recreation? What about abacavir hypersensitivity? And finally:  yes, DTC genomics customers are self-selected. So are the 50,000 PatientsLikeMe participants. So are the 10,000 in the Coriell Personalized Medicine Collaborative. So are the 15,000 on the Personal Genome Project waiting list. So are the 400,000 in the UK Biobank. Maybe we should just toss out all of that data, too.

Dan and Daniel have all of the incisive analysis you need about the deCODE unraveling. Meanwhile, Steve invokes Sartre:

Publicly owned companies shares are extremely liquid and can be crushed pretty easily, where as rich ol’ moneybags (SergeandMe) can keep throwing money into the kitty and outlast this economic downturn and premature launch of these companies, hoping to innovate his way out of this money pit.

This reason is probably why DeCodeme went private and will likely give up control of their data. They need some sucker to keep pouring money into a boondoggle that has no exit for at LEAST the next 15 years if at all.

If that doesn’t satisfy your schadenfreude jones, the Yahoo message boards have a bevy of shareholder bile aimed at deCODE’s founder and CEO.

I’m not always the biggest Gina Kolata fan, but her piece in this morning’s New York Times is a must-read:

Yet the fight against cancer is going slower than most had hoped, with only small changes in the death rate in the almost 40 years since it began.

One major impediment, scientists agree, is the grant system itself. It has become a sort of jobs program, a way to keep research laboratories going year after year with the understanding that the focus will be on small projects unlikely to take significant steps toward curing cancer.

“These grants are not silly, but they are only likely to produce incremental progress,” said Dr. Robert C. Young, chancellor at Fox Chase Cancer Center in Philadelphia and chairman of the Board of Scientific Advisors, an independent group that makes recommendations to the cancer institute.

George points me to TruGenetics(TM), Inc., which purports to offer the first 10,000 signer-uppers their very own variomes for free, nada, zilch, zero, bupkes etc. From the Terms and Conditions:

Risks
You may not anticipate the affect [sic] of knowing some types of genetic information. As part of this process, you will have access to genetic information that may lead to an emotional response or trouble you. For instance, your [sic] may learn some unanticipated information about yourself or a family member. This may have social, legal, or economic implications that you cannot anticipate at this time. Although we will give you the opportunity to review all of your genetic information, you will also be able to chose [sic] to not review certain genetic information until you are ready. We will also offer genetic counseling services that can help you better understand the implications of the genetic information.

We all knew this day was coming. Typing 500,000 markers is cheaper than a good meal in some places.

But what’s the business model here? Is free genotyping enough to cannibalize market share from the Big Three? What happens to “customer” 10,001?

Is there really a free lunch?

In case you were wondering…someone took the plunge.

The revolution continues…

Dr. Tenenbaum says patients can get started on a project with as little as $50,000 to $100,000. Sums like that, for example, could fund the creation of a molecular profile of a tumor to try to predict what combination of already approved drugs might be effective. If results proved promising, more money could be raised to set up a full-blown virtual biotech — with a budget in the millions of dollars — that might test cocktails of therapies in animal models and try grouping patients into subtypes to better tailor treatments for them, among other projects.

I can only hope that this is still active, because I’m sure every homeless hospital patient in New York would be glad to know that his/her genome is worth five gallons of gas, four Sunday Times, three six packs, and a partridge in a freaking pear tree.

The hospital plans to offer a $20 incentive to any patient who donates an eight-milliliter vial of blood to a new Biobank, a warehouse of DNA and plasma that is a central component of the hospital’s Institute for Personalized Medicine. “Personalized medicine,” an approach that incorporates molecular analysis into managing a patient’s health, has been touted as the future of medicine ever since scientists completed the map of the human genome in 2003.

Woo hoo! Muchos gracias, Mt. Sinai! Can I give 16 mls and get $40? Can I bring my kids in, too? How much for my dog’s lymphocytes?